## Problem 141 — rank:30

**Title:** Predictability of evolution

**Added binding assumptions (LaTeX):**

```latex
Separate outcome variation under fixed biological parameters from uncertainty about those parameters and about founder state. Predictive entropy mixes these sources; an intrinsic-variability claim must use the conditional outcome law. Independent developmental replicates can remain dependent through shared batch effects, which belong in the sampling model. Specify the outcome partition and avoid equating a coarse-category entropy with all developmental unpredictability.
```

**Direct edits:** 0. **Fresh external checks:** None; supplied sources retained as provenance.