## Problem 031 — rank:217

**Title:** Germline mutation spectrum

**Added binding assumptions (LaTeX):**

```latex
Separate biological event counts from detected calls. Under independent thinning with sensitivity $s_{nwk}$ and Poisson false positives of mean $b_{nwk}$, the observed mean is $s_{nwk}L_{nwk}\lambda_{wk}+b_{nwk}$, not simply $L_{nwk}\lambda_{wk}$. The latter applies to true events or a fully specified corrected observation model. Parental-age prediction is not automatically a causal exposure effect.
```

**Direct edits:** 0. **Fresh external checks:** None; supplied sources retained as provenance.