## Problem 210 — rank:174

**Title:** Climate-sensitive vector transmission

**Added binding assumptions (LaTeX):**

```latex
The target $J_t=Y_t/N_t$ is reported incidence, whose conditional mean is $q_t f_\theta$, not latent incidence $f_\theta$ alone. Use a predictor of that reported mean in the displayed risk, or define a separate latent-incidence target with reporting correction. Specify a full outcome and covariate-history law, not only a conditional mean, because squared prediction risk also depends on outcome variance and temporal dependence.
```

**Direct edits:** 2. **Fresh external checks:** None; supplied sources retained as provenance.